Economic Theory Essay Example for Free

Economic Theory Essay Two of the primary tasks in the world of Economics are prediction and evaluation. This assignment illustrates, at a rudimentary level, how models, techniques and methods constructed or borrowed from Economic Theory or other Sciences respectively are used to help accomplish these tasks. To do so, we consider a standard theoretical model of consumer choices in an economy in which the only activity is the exchange of goods. Due to the above-mentioned we can say that the most powerful technique used to predict the consequences of policies or future trends is modeling. A model is an abstraction intended to convey the essence of some particular aspect of the real world. Most economic models assume the existence of adequate information, yet information is a costly and scarce resource. Good models predict well enough to increase our understanding of certain situations, even though they may not predict them perfectly and there may be related situations in which the same models do not predict as well as expected. Last but not least there are models that constructed without using any numerical data; these are based entirely on economic theory. We shall begin by looking at some of the ways in which forecasting techniques can help us to predict future trends. Most business and economic decisions rest upon forecasts of future conditions. Methods of forecasting may be roughly categorized as follows: * Opinion polling * Mechanical extrapolations * Barometric techniques * Statistical and econometric methods Finally, forecasting techniques vary widely in their accuracy and sophistication. The most accurate technique is to be preferred, subject to the availability of data, expertise and finance and to the nature of the  forecast required. OPINION POLLING The assumption here is that by asking people who are likely to be directly involved, such as consumers or the sales force, attitudes and opinions which affect economic decisions can be assessed and predicted in advance. Opinion polling is a subjective method of forecasting made up largely of a weighted or unweighted averaging of expectations and attitudes. This general idea of developing informed and deliberated polling opinion has had a relatively length history successful experimentation beginning roughly during the 1970s in the U.S.A. In statistics polling is about probability sampling. A good poll: locates people who fairly represent the population were interested in; asks them fair, comprehensible and useful questions; calculates results fairly, without reaching beyond the data; and  is reported so people can understand where it does and does not apply. The importance of opinion polling and the way it can be done is shown in the below Figure: Opinion polling is a very powerful technique used to predict future trends. Based upon probability sampling it can give people many answers upon many problems in the society. Depending on the size of the sample, the results are relatively accurate, scientific representation of the entire publics considered opinion on perplexing issues. Today there are a lot of companies which provide a wide variety of consultancy services and offer top quality research based solutions to their clients problems. They also provide full service market research process, from defining research objectives through analysis and presentation of data. To achieve their goals they use research methodologies, advanced statistical analysis and strategic relevant and decision reports. Their credibility and reputation is reflected in the fact that their publicly released findings are regularly quoted by the media (press, radio and television). Additionally, these companies are leading agencies in Socio-Political public opinion polls and Political Candidate Evaluation research. Another aspect of opinion polling is exit-poll. For example scientists use exit-poll method to predict who is going to win in elections. The exit-poll method is not 100% accurate, but the error between the real results and the ones from exit-poll is very-very small. Asking a small sample of population inside a society it can predict whether the conservative of socialist party is going to be elected. Finally, opinion polling is also used by companies to know which product of theirs is more consumed by people. Asking a small sample of people using questionnaires (more often) they can realize which product of theirs is more consumed by people, which product are less consumed and tries to find means of improvement for others. MECHANICAL EXTRAPOLATIONS This is probably the most frequently adopted method of forecasting. It involves the basic assumption that past patterns of economic behavior continues to the extent that past behavior can be used to predict the future. It has the attraction of also being relatively cheap in that the company is likely to posses most of the relevant historical information. Last but not least, the mechanical methods of forecasting rely on future conditions being an extent of past ones. Also, this method might consist of taking a time series of historical sales figures, and fitting a trend line to it by eye as shown in the figure below: This can then be used to read off sales predictions for the required future dates. To produce this line between the dependent and independent variables of data, as shown in the above figure, the ordinary least-squares (OLS) technique uses a mathematical formula to illustrate this line. However, the technique also produces a measure of the explanatory power of the relationship on the basis of the relationships observed in the original data. A mathematical formula for producing this line is: Where a and b in this equation have been estimated using regression analysis (a set of statistical techniques used to quantify the relationship between two or more variables). BAROMETRIC TECHNIQUES In addition with mechanical extrapolations, barometric techniques assume that present happenings can give an indication of future events. Also, this technique is based on the observation that there are lagged relationships between many economic time series. Moreover, to give an indication of future events, there are three types of indicators as far as economic activity. Leading indicators are those which tend to herald future changes in the course of business activity. Coincident indicators move in step with the cycle; examples of these might include aggregate levels of sales, employment and industrial production. Finally, there are lagging indicators, which trail behind the level of economic activity. Although it is possible to isolate various leading indicators the direction of movements in each does not presage movements in economic activity with complete accuracy. The reason is that the lead-time between their behavior and the ensuing change in economic activity is not likely to be constant. Nowadays, many companies who want to see which of their product is more consumed by people, they make a statistical figure in order to calculate this. Using barometric techniques they can find which product of theirs is more consumed by people, which is not going too well and try to give improvements for others. So, they can indicate from present happenings, how a product can be in the future. STATISTICAL AND ECONOMETRIC METHODS Science is given as truth ascertained by observation, experiment, and induction. The purpose of science known as statistics is to provide the means for measuring the amount of subjectivity that goes into the scientists conclusions and thus to separate science from opinion. Hence, statistical and econometric methods, similar to those used in time series regression can be used to analyze the economic relationships between variables. Many of the firms forecasting problems can be solved with a single equation econometric model. Laws of probability are applied to this model in order to determine what chances are for the various possible outcomes of the experiment. The first step in the construction of such a model is to specify the hypotheses, which purport to explain the relationships between the variables. Hypothesis testing is the process of inferring from a sample (a collection of some elements of a population) whether or not to accept a certain statement about the population. The statement itself is called the hypothesis. When the model is constructed it gives the businessman the opportunity of experimenting to test the predicted results of various strategies. There is a vast variety of companies offering a full-service market  research which means the capability to successfully undertake any research project from the conceptual stage through the design, data collection, tabulation, analysis, interpretation of findings, recommendations, and presentation. The projects they undertake span a broad array of industries, types of studies, experimental designs and analytical statistical techniques. They are skilled in the wide variety of quantitative and qualitative techniques, providing their clients with a seamless connection between all phases of the research program. Their full range of custom research for Consumer and Business to Business research includes the following: * Tracking studies * Product testing * Taste testing * Home-use tests * Advertising research * Strategic research * Product Positioning research * Concept tests * Customer satisfaction tests * Etc.

Language in Haiti Essay -- Linguistics

Language in Haiti Language is a major issue in Haiti. Our language is both one of our greatest belongings and one of our greatest baggages. On one hand, it represents the mainstay of our culture, the unique pathway to our true nature; on the other, it sometimes restricts and casts us out by putting us in a box and preventing us from accessing two prime universal bases of knowledge and culture: French and English. Our people, in Haiti and throughout the world, sometimes need to use Creole, French, and English at different times, in different places, to respond to different needs. Creole as mainstay and restriction is Haiti’s current and, most likely, our future reality, and I believe that Creole should be valued and fully integrated in the educational system in Haiti. The two official languages of Haiti are French and Creole. All Haitians speak Creole, while only a very small part of the population can be considered bilingual in French and Creole. Traditionally, the two languages served different functions, with Creole being the informal everyday language of all the people, regardless of the social class, and French considered as the language of formality used in situations such as newspapers, schools, the law and the courts, and official documents and decrees. Nevertheless, because the great majority of Haitians only speak Creole, many efforts have been made in recent years to expand its usage. A language is conventionally composed of arbitrary signals such as voice sounds, gestures, and written symbols; such a system uses its own rules for combining its components, which makes every language unique. Haitian Creole highly relies on proverbs, metaphors, and sublime imagery. Here are a few of these pro... ...ole, and I wish to take part in it. Works Cited Baldwin, James. â€Å"If Black English Isn’t a Language, Then Tell Me, What Is?† The Composition of Our â€Å"Selves.† 2nd ed. Dubuque, Iowa: Kendall/Hunt. 2000. 123–6. Curtis, Marcia. Preface. The Composition of Our â€Å"Selves.† 2nd ed. Dubuque, Iowa: Kendall/Hunt, 2000. 103–9. Jordan, June. â€Å"Nobody Mean More to Me Than You.† The Composition of Our â€Å"Selves.† 2nd ed. Dubuque, Iowa: Kendall/Hunt. 2000. 157–163. Katz, Stacey. â€Å"Near-Native Speakers in the Foreign-Language Classroom: The Case of Haitian Immigrant Students†. The Sociolinguistics of Foreign-Language Classrooms. EBSCO. 2003. 08 Nov. 2005 http://search.epnet.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db= eric&an=ED481793. White, Michael and David Epston. â€Å"Story, Knowledge, and Power†. The Composition of Our â€Å"Selves.† 2nd ed. Dubuque, Iowa: Kendall/Hunt, 2000. 64–77.

SOP for International Business Management in Fleming College

Pursuing a post Graduate in International Business Management is a dream, a goal and often a path to a future career. For inc, it is also a responsibility that I owe to myself and a commitment I have to-others. I have realized in the tOday's world that originality is ofte-n sacrificed for time and money. ] want to fully explore the knowledge of Ex p-orts,Imports and Business Management, fully expand on-the insights that it provides and_get my career started. Choosing IBM (International Business Management) as'a career would help launch ray career with a decent business. hich involves interacting with people_ I like to communicate with poople, act like a mediato. r, and solve their problems whether it may relate to rec rui ti ng or dealing with employees. I would like to oversee the business of managing people in an organization. Basically. I am a Mathematics Major. Majority. of my courseivork included fundamentals, derivation, evolutioniproblems and solutions. International Business Mana. gemcnt was on6d lily favorite subject. It is this liking for the subject, which inclines me,toTursue a Post Graduate diploma in International Business Management in your college.Business Management Study Guide Moreover, it is highly in demand in today's modern and competitive world. As a International Business professional has become:important part:of successful company with a-wide-variety of responsibilities. I would consider myself fortunate enough, if. I get to become a part of the team. Additionally, I strongly believe teamwork I choose International Business Management because the current need of the present and the future depends on the placements of business in the right direction. Your program with its,tlexibility and strength of curricultirmand couisework would allow me to further my understanding in this interdisciplinary approach to these complex of business issues that people face daily in their work environment. I am confident I can enhance the scholarly debate in the discipline of conflict resolution. â€Å"We live only once, but if we live right, once is enough†. The same truth applies to one's career decision because the career you choose is going to live with you through out your life and the education you perceive was, is and will be you're most loyal friend and which will help you achieve your career goals. Moreover, education is an investment that will reap rich dividends in the future ; will never go a waste. So one has to make wise career decisions in life for which he may not have to repent in the future. International business management refers to the effective management of business transactions that are to be performed across various countries. This is done to satisfy the objectives of people and organizations. Thus a firm should he aware of various issues while entering foreign markets. There are key political, cultural, social, legal and environmental issues that every organization must fully cover to ensure the smooth running of its business in foreign shores. Failure to do so may lead to may obstacles. It is always effective to take a proactive measure while conducting business in foreign markets. MY interest towards International Business and the knowledge gathered through college at my Master's in Business administration created a passion towards business field education tempted inc to act as a entrepreneur . Since we had only few specialization in my campus j could take only Finance and Marketing. I was first exposed with sales nature were i could find lots of customer relationship activity. At present am fit in Axis Bank Pvt Ltd as a Officer. I realize it is tough for a returning student; however. I do not believe in quitting. Lastly. I always want to succeed. Success here is twofold. First, it is personal success for me in the program. Next, it is my commitment to give you my very best, by learning International Business Management theory and taking it to the classroom and beyond. If I am accepted. I am sure you will not be disappointed. You will find me to be a committed and capable student and an enthusiastic advocate of business.

Genetic Engineers Are People Who Alter The Deoxyribose

Genetic engineers are people who alter the deoxyribose nucleic acid (DNA) of organisms. These engineers do this in order to enhance/modify the characteristics of an organism. With this process, vegetation can become bug-resistant and/or have better nutritional value. Deists have disliked the field of genetic engineering due to the belief that genetic engineers are â€Å"playing God.† Despite the opposition by religious people and the secular society, one would believe that genetic engineering has the potential to serve society in a beneficial way. People with Type 1 diabetes have benefited from this field, and the amount of herbicides and insecticides that are sprayed on select produce has reduced as a result of genetic engineers’ processes.†¦show more content†¦This close entanglement of crops, by default, produced new organisms, which was speculated by________ in _______ when he planted different species of plants in a bed which resulted in a new species of p lants. The cultivation of these domestic crops was possible, however, because the DNA of the plants were sufficiently similar. Genetic engineering most commonly involves only selecting specific genomes to be introduced to a completely different species, which has sparked controversy when scientific processes were introduced in the 1970s. David A. Jackson, Robert H. Simmons, and Paul Berg confirmed that they were able to combine DNA of the monkey virus Simion Virus-40, with a lambda virus, by following the scientific method and claiming intellectual property (Jackson, David A., Robert H. Symons, and Paul Berg, 1972). Once it was discovered that genetic modification could occur, the first genetically modified organisms were produced by Herbert Boyer and Stanley Cohen in 1973. Since then, peoples have been resistant to the genetically modified organisms because of this â€Å"unnaturalness† idea. Specifically, GM foods in supermarkets is of concern. The most common GM foods are corn and soy, which are incorporated into the typical American diet. Dr. Hannes Stephan, an expert on the impacts of GMOs details in his monogram, â€Å"Cultural Politics and the Transatlantic Divide over GMOs† the social impact these organisms have on the United States. He specifies